### Beat the Streak: Day Four

In this blog post, I will introduce an idea I recently came up with to predict the most likely players to get a hit in a given game based on situational factors such as opposing starter, opposing team, ballpark, and so on. I have not written much in this blog on this topic, although I did some work on this topic last fall which you can find here . In that work, I had the chance to explore a bunch of ideas that I had, but ultimately had to back up a few steps and rethink my approach. I think the ideas are still valid, and will continue refine them as time permits. A few weeks ago, I came up with a new approach that is completely different from my other approaches so far, and I will share it in the rest of this post. Defining the Problem Before we dive into the math, let's talk about what exactly we are trying to do. The end goal is to pick the player who is most likely to get a hit on a given day based on factors associated to the games for that day. Some of these facto