Showing posts from August, 2015

Beat the Streak: Day Three

In order to maximize your probability of beating the streak, you should (1) predict the probability that a batter will get a hit in a given game given the game parameters and (2) determine if it's worthwhile to risk your current streak in order to possibly improve it by 1 or 2 games. In this blog post, I outline my solution to (2). In previous blog posts, I've hinted at what I do to solve (1) and will continue that discussion in a later blog post.

Motivation When your current streak is short, the optimal strategy is to pick the best player every day, regardless of how likely their probability of getting a hit is (to a certain extent). However, as your streak grows, you have an important decision to consider: is it better to pick the best player today and possibly lose your current streak, or skip picking a player and instead maintain your current streak. Naturally, this decision should be guided by the players probability of getting a hit, as well as the distribution of these …